Welcome to The Opener, every weekday morning during the regular season, you will receive a fresh, topical article to start your day from one of SI.com’s MLB writers.
During the lockout, a senior front office executive told me that when players fought for more money for young players, they already had a tool to achieve that goal.
“There are still five-year-old superstar players to ask [in arbitration] In large numbers, ”the source said. “Even if you win a low percentage of those cases, the victories set new precedents. Five-year players on the jury can compare themselves to players in any service class, so Tree Turner can compare himself to Francisco Linder, and those victories set the bar for the team behind them.
Most players go on a safe path. They avoid the risk of hostility that can come from an arbitral tribunal hearing. For example, Turner agreed a $ 21 million deal this season, far below Linder’s average annual value of $ 34.1 million.
I was reminded of the stars’ “pushing the envelope” of wage rates when Judge Aaron rejected the “safe way”: a seven-year contract extension from the Yankees for $ 30.5 million a year. Ignore false suggestions of “eight years and $ 230 million”. It’s a fake number between his 2022 salary, i.e. $ 17 million or $ 22 million – and the club’s referee figures – or something settled before the June trial. The Yankees have been trying to buy his free agent years. This is a completely different ball game when a player is in control of the team.
The Yankees took a very unusual step in announcing the terms of their offer, which did not make the judge shudder. (This is even after the season’s biggest arbitration break. Imagine the Yankees arguing against a judge in a $ 5 million trial.) There’s nothing wrong with New York doing that, especially when it comes to extensions.
If the judge wants to increase his value, the tool to do so is a free agency. Eight of the 12 highest AAVs in baseball history are the result of the influence of the free agency. After the season, the referee can offer his services to any team, not just the Yankees. He has no plans to continue talking about the deal during the season.
“By the end of the year, I’m now a free agent,” the judge told reporters Friday. “Talk to 30 groups. The Yankees are one of those 30 teams.
Taking the extension’s protection (Guardian Jose Ramirez) or increasing the value as a free agent (Max Scherzer rejected the $ 144 million extension from Detroit before receiving $ 210 million from Washington in January 2015) is a personal decision. There is no “right” or “wrong” answer.
This is the first time in his career that a judge has had this kind of earning power. From 2017 to ’19, he earned just $ 1.85 million when he was third in the majors in OPS + and fifth in slacking and bWAR. Total.
The referee will play at 31 next season. By the end of his next contract, whether it was the Yankees or another club, he would be too old to get anything close to this forex.
Keep in mind that from 2023 to 25 ($ 32 million) Giancarlo Stanton will pay the Yankees $ 30.5 million a year less than the 37-year-old ($ 36 million) Gerrit Cole. ), Less than the Tigers paid Miguel Cabrera eight years ago on his extension ($ 37.15 in today’s dollars) and seven years free agent ($ 35 million) to Angels Anthony Randon.
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Also, the judge is one of the few or very large drawing cards in the game. Early in his career, the Yankees helped promote him to a personalized divisional judge’s room in the right field, where a true Supreme Court judge once played ball. To be a Yankee, how much residual value does the player and team have for the referee? More than most players.
Anthony Gruppuso / USA Today Sports
Before signing a five-year, $ 118 million deal with Zach Wheeler Phyllis, the club circled the Mets again to grant him the right of last refusal to keep him there. He asked nothing. Brodie Van Wagenen, then GM, explained, “The predictions we had for Zack, both short-term and long-term, did not match the market he was able to enjoy.” Wheeler has gone to the next level with Billies.
A club should know its own players better than the players they buy. Believing in “plans” based on comps and aging patterns is an important part of planning. But auxiliary charts must be in addition to the player’s knowledge. In this case, the charts are not very helpful because the judge is very extroverted. At 6 ‘7 “, 282 pounds, he is the biggest player in the majors, and by the time he turns 30 this month he has played fewer MLB games than 26-year-old Cody Bellinger.
What kind of player would a judge under the age of 30 be? The Yankees were confident enough to guarantee a seven-year guarantee for the big boy between the ages of 31 and 37. In the history of baseball, only six level players weighing at least 250 pounds have played in the Majors at 37: Jim Thom, A.J. Pierczynski, Cabrera and three backers, Jose Molina, Eric Groats and Karki Miller. None are field players.
Many more than 250 pounds did not last long, including Princefielder (age 32), Adam Dunn (34), Dmitry Young (34), Ryan Howard (36) and Frank Howard (36). Frank Howard seems to be the closest thing to a judge. He was 6 ‘7 ”, 255 pounds and a good enough athlete to pull down 32 rebounds at once in a game for Ohio State in a holiday basketball game at Madison Square Garden. Between the ages of 31 and 34, Howard recorded 167 OPS + and formed the All-Star squad for all four seasons — his only choice. But his career came to a quiet end over the next two seasons. He continued to try to play in Japan, but his back was out.
Frank Howard played his last game 49 years ago. Considering the advances made in training, nutrition, medicine, and diagnosis, the package for the judge loses its meaning.
Injuries are a factor when deciding on a contract for a judge. He has missed 23% of the Yankees’s games since 2017. He has only played two seasons with 500 blade appearances – each time he has reached the top five in the MVP poll. Shortstop Cory Caesar brought a similar injury history to the free-agent market – three seasons with 500 blade appearances, and a top five MVP finish – still earning $ 32.5 million a year from Texas at the age of 37. (Caesar is three years younger than the judge.)
As Scherzer did, the judge is betting on himself and ready to take the risk of another injury that could weaken his market. Yes, it is possible that the judge wanted to get his true market value from a Yankee. Comments do not have to be exclusive to each other.
Eric W. Rasco / Sports Illustrated
The judge is a huge asset to the Yankees: a self-developed slugger with a marketable brand, most of which is due to his outward size. Only four domestic players have scored 300 Homers so far for the Yankees: Lou Kehrik, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Ferra and Mickey Mandil, last played in 1968.
He became the judge for Yankee Stadium, as he flicked fastballs into the narrow corridor on the right field. He slugs.609 on the field. Only three players have played well so far at New York City Ball Parks: Babe Ruth and Kehrik at Yankee Stadium and Duke Snyder at Abbott Field.
Expel the judge from the Yankees and Yankee Stadium for the next seven years with no one to replace him, his connection with his reputation and entitlement. That’s why the judge is going for free company rather than having already signed the extension. He is a true foreigner, through this one opportunity to discover what he is worth.
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