6 Best Choices for Our Staff, including Blue Jays vs. Yankees, Rockies vs. Rangers

With a full Tuesday in Major League Baseball today, all 30 teams are on the field, with some afternoon games and tons of opportunities for betting value.

Our analysts have placed a total of six races on four of those 15 games, starting with the Tooling Picks between the Guardians and the Reds in the afternoon. We have to recommend total, full-game money transactions, group total and more.

Here are our top six races from MLB Slate on Tuesday.

MLB Contradictions and Choices

Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians

Select
Red-104
Thread
Fan Duel
Pitchers
Shane Bieber vs. Tyler Mahley
The first pitch
4:10 pm ET

Tanner McGrath: I’m ready to sell them more after the Guardians exploded for 27 runs in the two – game series against Kansas City.

After all, Cleveland should not be liked in Cincinnati. Especially against Tyler Mahle, who was a guy I was high on this season and made a solid debut on opening day. That day he struck out seven braves in five three-hit innings, which follows the 2021 season, where he received 3.74 xFIP over 180 IP.

Mahle’s crack impressed me. Over the past two years he has added two eaters to the pace, resulting in his strike rate on the pitch rising by 8%.

Meanwhile, the Guardians were 18th in the MLB in the weightlifting runs they made last season (-2.9), and I expect Mahley to throw four Cleveland seamers in five or six innings.

Shane Bieber was the reason Cleveland was liked, but he did not miss his first start. Only 4 2/3 innings with xFIP over 4.15 against former Sy Young winner Royals. He is backed by a Cleveland pen who is predicted to be in the back half of the league this season.

In addition, I would not underestimate the Reds’ lineup. Cincinnati still features future Hall of Famer Joey Votto and current NL ROY winner Jonathan India. India won 15 of his 21 homers in 2021 after the All-Star break, so I’m glad to see him tap into his original power.

Back home I will take a shot with Cincy at this point.


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Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians

Select
Guards-110
Thread
BetMGM
Pitchers
Shane Bieber vs. Tyler Mahley
The first pitch
4:10 pm ET

Jules Posner: At the start of the season there seemed to be a lot of concern about the pace of the Ace Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians.

With more direct representatives and more confidence, we hope Bieber can take another step forward against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday.

Tyler Mahley was light-out in his 2022 debut, throwing five scoreless innings against defending champions Atlanta Braves in Atlanta.

However, considering Mahle’s history at home, he may be in trouble.

Last season, Mahley recorded 5.63 epochs at home and 5.16 FIPs at home. This shows that he’s got a full-scale case of Willie at the Great American Ballpark. That’s right. Willis.

In addition, the Guardians’ offense has been strong in their last two games at Kansas City. They scored only one run in the first two games and 27 runs in the second two games.

The defenders seem to be playing with little confidence, their ace is going on, and the Reds’ ace was found to have a serious case of Willies at home. Guards ML looks like a good play on -110 here. Still worth spinning up to -150 threshold.


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New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays

Select
The Yankees have a total of over 5
Thread
PointsBet
Pitchers
UC Kikuchi vs. Nestor Cortes
The first pitch
7:05 pm ET

DJ James: Yusei Kikuchi topped the first percentage last season with an average exit speed of 91.9 mph. This is horrible considering the power of the power hitters in the New York lineup.

Kikuchi relies heavily on the cutter / fore-seamer mix, but by 2021 most of the Yankees’ teams had hosted a 330+ xwOBA against these pitches from Southampton.

Last season, the Yankees had 110 wRC + against Tenba. In addition, only 15.9% of their hits are “soft”, so this may be a nightmare for Kikuchi. For a team that threw 72 bombs from the left, it is hard to imagine a scene that did not hit at least one pair in this match.

If it builds, Toronto Bulben is not very strong behind Jordan Romano. Tim Misa and Adam Zimber are decent, but depending on availability, the Blue Jays could have been tied for the Bullpen innings after playing Monday. If Kikuchi leaves early, they will need someone to carry out the mop-up duty.

It’s hard to pick a page here on how strong the Blue Jays lineup is, but the Yankees will accumulate runs. Take this line to 5.5.


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Minnesota doubles against Los Angeles Dodgers

Select
Over 9 (-112)
Thread
Fan Duel
Pitchers
Chris Archer vs. Andrew Heaney
The first pitch
7:40 pm ET

Mike Ianello: The Dodgers were able to score only 11 runs in three games in Denver. They scored a home run, and as everyone expected, it came from Austin Barnes. Freddie Freeman, Tree Turner, Max Munsey and Mookie Bets are 9 for 52 (.173) so far this season.

Do we really expect their struggles to continue for long? Especially against Chris Archer. After posting the 5.19 era in 2019, Archer missed the entire 2020 season and most of 2021. He returned at the end of the year, making five starts and finishing with 4.66 ERA and 4.79 xFIP. His speed is down and his HardHit% is up.

Andrew Heaney, who was one of the worst pitchers in the league last season, will be bang on for the Dodgers. His 5.83 era was the third worst in the entire league with pitchers having at least 120 innings. His 2.01 HR / 9 ratio is the fifth highest.

Frankly, both of these pitchers stink, and these two offenses cause a lot of damage to them. If the Dodgers finally get up and go as everyone expects, he can go in a hurry. I played over 9pm on Monday and will play above 9.5 over -110.


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Minnesota doubles against Los Angeles Dodgers

Select
Over 9 (-112)
Thread
Fan Duel
Pitchers
Chris Archer vs. Andrew Heaney
The first pitch
7:40 pm ET

Doug Giffel: I think I did not post any news here when I say that Chris Archer has reached the end of his rope. Archer missed the majority of 2021 with another injury. Although he did not perform well in his 19 innings of work, his cracking speed dropped to almost 2 mph, and it was hit frequently as his expected ERA was 5.96.

The most recent addition to Archer’s decline was last year, as he has not had an under-four era since 2015. Not to mention, this menacing Dodgers lineup has touched him in the past.

Of the 84 blade appearances, the big Dodgers bat combined to get 338, Slugging .706 and .406 WOBA against Archer.

Andrew Heaney didn’t spark a ton of confidence either. Heaney had a reputation as an underestimated pitcher by the Angels because he had the stuff to set the guys aside, but Matt could not stay.

In 2021, Heaney reached the 5.83 era, allowing tons of hard contact to be allowed, and was third in the league’s tough hit percentage, barrel percentage and average exit speed.

Lastly, on top of facing a row of solid right-handed pads, Heaney didn’t get off to a warm start. Historically, April has been the worst month of Heaney’s career, reaching an era of 5.89.

So, look for quick and frequent runs in Minnesota.


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Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies

Select
Rockies first five innings +135
Thread
Draft Kings
Pitchers
Martin Perez vs. Chad Kuhl
The first pitch
8:05 pm ET

Brad Cunningham: With an average of .266 and a record of 334 wOBA last season, the Rockies are one of the best in the league against left-handed play. They lost one of the best hitters against the left in the Trevor story, but Chris Bryant canceled that vacancy considering he has .406 wOBA against the left in his career.

They face less-than-average left-handers in Martin Perez, so this is a great fit for the Colorado lineup. Perez recorded the highest xERA (5.54) and hard hit% (42.7%) of his career in Boston in 2021 for FanGraphs. At 31, you have to imagine that he is on the downward path of his career.

Chad Gul spent four seasons in Pittsburgh, but his 2021 was not really bad. His xERA is 4.82, which is his best mark since 2018. He mainly uses the slider, used 46.1% of the time and had a decent win in it last year, catching opponents to the xBA and creating a 33.4% wif ratio, to baseball mortality. Texas was 19th last season with a score of -24.2 against the sliders.

I predicted Kuhl and the Rockies to be +117 for the first five innings, so their value would be +135 and I would reduce it to +130.


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