MLB trends: Guardians Rookie Steven Quan at the beginning of history; Stolen sites on the slope

With less than a week to go until the 2022 MLB regular season, to be completely honest with you, this is the worst time of the year to analyze baseball. Sample sizes are so small and it is almost impossible to distinguish what makes sense other than baseball being different. But, we are soldiers.

Our weekly series, which breaks down various trends throughout the league, begins Wednesday with a look at the historic start of a new player’s career, the dangerous pace of a starter’s fall and the base rate stolen throughout the league. Let’s get to that.

Introduction to Quan’s historic masterpiece

This is the beginning of making history for Guardians outfielder Steven Kuan. The former Oregon State Beaver started his big league career with seven runs at 15 (.667) 10. He did not hit. Quan reached the base 18 times in his first five career games, the most in a player’s first five games of the modern era (since 1901).

After reaching the Quan base three times on Monday, Guardians manager Terry Francona told the Associated Press, “Now there are a lot of player development people, they have to do it.” “I know we’ve been in four games, but each one of them kept saying ‘Hey, he’s going to be fine, man’ ‘so I know they’re proud.

Quan, 24, was a fifth-round pick in 2018, and he is the RJ for the Guardians entering 2022. Despite Anderson’s breakout choice, he was not considered a great opportunity. He is a bat control / communication machine with an excellent approach. Power and iffy defensive value (Quan dropped a fly ball with loaded platforms on Monday) hit 328 / .407 / 527 in 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A.

The bat-to-ball ability is truly elite. As Sarah Longs of MLB.com points out, Kwan has seen 115 pitches this season, not swinging even once and not missing a single swing and miss-free pitches since 2000. Also, he has not yet struck out in 2022. Regular season or spring training. Between spring training and the regular season, Kuan has 58 blade appearances and zero strikeouts.

Kwan had the lowest swinging strike rate among minors last season, not particularly close. Here is the leaderboard (at least 300 plate appearances):

  1. Steven Quan, Defenders: 2.6 percent
  2. Michael Stephanic, Angels: 5.0 percent
  3. Isaac Parades, Tigers: 5.2% (Included in the latest Austin Meadows trade)
  4. Kyle Kaser, Angels: 5.2 percent
  5. Grand Williams, Red Sox: 5.3 percent

The MLB average swinging strike rate was 11.3 percent last season. With Kuan, the number on that leaderboard. The interval between 1 and number 2, no. Like the gap between 2 and number 51. Travelman infielder Breivik is the last minor league player with a lower swinging strike rate than Kuan last year. Valera in 2015. The last major league player in 2013 was Marco Scooter.

Quan’s questions about his long-term value are power over his fence (he has scored 15 homers in three minor league seasons) and defense. There is no question about his impact early in his MLB career. He has hit the ground running at a historic rate so far, and his extreme bat control gives him the opportunity to be a top hitter with a few hot streaks in the game.

Ureas have no speed

Headshot-picture

The first start of the regular season of Dodgers Lefty Julio Urias did not go as planned. After finishing at least five innings in 31 of his 32 starts last season, Urias only got six outs in his season debut this year, however, to be precise it was Koursfield and some defensive odds behind him. Chris Taylor made a bad mistake with two outs in the first inning:

Urias hit six sixes in two innings and six runs in two innings and five batters. He did not outscore a single hitter, and the Rockies hitters missed just four of their 24 swings. That includes zero failure with 10 swings against his crack. This is the lowest rate for urea in 2021, with a heifer ratio of 21.3 percent and an overall wif rate of 24.4 percent.

Very worrying: Urias is not seeing a good pace. The speed usually peaks in the summer months, so it is not uncommon for a tick to be less than a tick or two in April, but urias to be more than a tick or two. Average speed numbers:

Crackball

94.0 mph

94.1 mph

91.4 mph

Curved ball

81.0 mph

81.4 mph

80.3 mph

Change

87.0 mph

86.8 mph

84.6 mph

Urias did not fly above 93.1 mph in its season debut last weekend. Last season, his Average The cracker was more than 30 of his 32 starts, and neither of the two starts came in late September. We are in the red flag area here. If there is no speed limit of 3 mph the alarms should be set.

“If I don’t run the pitches, I can throw at 100 mph, it’s not a bar,” Urias told Bill Blankett. Orange District Registration Following the introduction of his season. “I feel the implementation of the pitches is very important, and I’m going to focus on that.”

Clear Warning This is not a normal spring workout. The pitchers had only three weeks to prepare for the regular season, and basically everyone came out of camp within the pitch range. Urias did not see the pace in spring training, last year 185 2/3 innings was nearly 100. The peak of his previous career was 87 2/3 innings in High Class-A in 2014.

Also, Urias was removed from the shoulder capsule surgery within five years, which was a very long time ago kiss of death. The torn shoulder capsules ruined the lives of John Tanks, John Maine, Mark Briar, Johan Santana and many others over the years. To date, Urias has recovered from that vital practice, as well as the Dodgers may have reasonably relied on. This is not yet something you want in a player history.

Urias feels like he’s forever, but he’s 25. The obvious concern is that the young pitcher, who broke his previous height of close to 100 innings and has had the biggest shoulder surgery in his history, has shown two grades in his crack range. Dodgers have not been blessed with as much rotational depth as in previous years. Urea in 91-92 is a different animal than urea in 94-96. If he compromises, it will be a significant blow to the club’s title hopes.

“It’s definitely not the best,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Blankett. “I think it’s a by-product of not having a normal buildup. I do not use it as an excuse. I think it’s a fact. We build him up and develop arm strength. I think, because he’s healthy. He’s feeling good. . ”

Stolen sites are still in decline

It’s no secret that the stolen site in Major League Baseball is a dying art. Last season the teams tried 0.61 stolen sites per game. In 2011, 0.93 stolen basic attempts per game. You have to go back to 1999 when the teams last tried more than one stolen site (1.01 per game). Thefts are greatly reduced.

So far this season, stolen sites have been steadily declining. Tuesday’s sports teams are 55 for 82 theft sites this year. It has a 67.1 percent success rate and 0.55 theft attempts per game. Compared to the first week of previous seasons, it’s much lower (we’re going to ignore the epidemic season shortened to 2020):

2017

0.78 (69.9%)

0.71 (73.0%)

2018

0.65 (76.9%)

0.71 (72.1%)

2019

0.70 (72.3%)

0.64 (73.3%)

2021

0.52 (80.0%)

0.61 (75.7%)

2022

0.55 (67.1%)

???

The base effort rate stolen in the first week of the season does not fully correlate with the entire season missed base attempt rate, but they follow the same basic trend, and it is downward. Even three years ago teams didn’t run often. The stolen base success rate for the entire season, in general, is increasing. Teams try to steal less, but when they try, they often win. They choose their locations and go when playing with high probability.

There are numerous reasons for the fall of the stolen site. When you have multiple home run hitters, teams don’t think they deserve the risk. Many pitchers have adopted modified stretch delivery, which reduces plate time. Instant replay means accurate calls. There is also a risk of injury. Mike Trout missed two months after injuring his thumb a second time a few years ago.

It can also be cyclical and will pick up stolen sites again in a few years. Its value is that the MLB is testing a number of rule changes to promote stolen sites among minors. They move the second floor, they zoom in on the bases, and they impose restrictions on pickoff moves. Stolen sites are exciting and MLB is exploring ways to bring them back. Worth a try.

For now, the number of stolen sites continues to decline. The stolen basic efforts are far less than they were three years ago in the first week of this season. We can blame the short spring training and players for not wanting to push things, but it fits in with the overall trend of the baseball game. Stealing is no longer a weapon.

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