Er, um, well … in the last season.
We’ve been waiting for all the seasons, and the post-season has finally arrived. It hasn’t won yet, but the winners in Tuesday night’s games between the No. 7- and No. 8-seeds from each conference enter the real playoff brackets.
When the stocks are this high, the cycles are shortened and the stars get more minutes and more usage than before. I mean, finally, it’s time to play the best players in the game. Let’s go inside.
NBA Player Props & Pix
Kevin Durant, Turnover Over 3.5 (-105)
|Nets vs. Cavaliers||Web-8.5|
|Time | TV||7 pm ET | TNT|
|The best book||BetMGM|
If Kevin Durant had been out for almost two months in the middle of the season, the Nets would not have played in this play-in game. Brooklyn was ugly 8-19 without KD, 12 of those losses were in double digits.
But as Durand returned on March 3 and joined his new Brooklyn team, he played the much-anticipated MVP candidate. KD’s numbers have been awesome since he returned. He averaged 31.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game, and he averaged 52/40/94 with 2.5 3s and 7.6 free throws per game.
When we last saw Durant in the playoffs, he was playing like the best player on earth, before that he stopped him from knocking down the team that went on to win the NBA Championship. That Durant is back, and he’s doing more for the Nets than ever before.
This year Durant’s 6.4 APG is the highest in his career, and it is up and down, including the top 16 times in the regular season finale. But with great power comes great responsibility, and that extra handling also saw Durant’s turnover rise.
Since his return on March 3, Durant has averaged 4.4 turnover per game. This would be the high of his career in one season, and he has gone above 3.5 sales in 14 of these last 19 games, up 74%. This includes five sales last Friday night against these caves.
Durant plays enormous minutes and does everything for Brooklyn. He will definitely play a big game. But he’s going to get some turnover along the way, so take the equivalent odds here or -140.
Carl-Anthony Downs, over 3.5 (+120)
|Timberwolves vs. Clippers||Wood Wolves-3|
|Time | TV||9:30 pm and | TNT|
|The best book||Draft Kings|
This is one of the least important games in the history of the Minnesota Timberwolves franchise. A win to build the playoff domain here, always easily ranked in the top five Wolves wins.
This team is good, they believe in themselves – especially in crime. And they are right to believe. Jan. From 5 (Downs and D’Angelo Russell missed the first pair of games of 2022), the Wolves have the best offensive rating in the NBA at 118.7. They are 3-points ahead in the league and second in free throws, and during that extension they have a huge 122.2 PPG, which is almost three points ahead of the second-highest scoring team.
At the center of that crime is the team’s superstar Carl-Anthony Downs. Chris Finch has opened Towns, and KAD is the hub that runs everything else. His count has actually dropped slightly this year, but the Downs have done less, scoring more efficiently and raising his teammates.
Downs struggled to score against the Clippers this season, but his passing numbers were strong. He averaged 3.7 APG in 2022 and has at least three times in 7522 in 75% of his games. This puts us within a helping of this line, and he passed it at 19 out of 44. That’s only a 43% success rate, but we get +120, which is 45%.
But do not forget the rest of the equation: minutes. Cities averages only 32.8 minutes per game in 2022, but for a game of this size, he should watch 38 to 40 minutes. Those extra 20% minutes are enough to cover our gaps, get our number, and then get some.
If you want to be loud, you can play a great Downs passing game on Bet365 at +1225 for seven aids or +4000 for double digits. He has eight games with seven or more assists. This is a bit far for me, but I will play for at least four times on any positive number.
Paul George, over 6.5 rebounds (-138) | Over 9.5 Rebounds (+350)
It’s time for Paul George to eat.
George did not play until two days before Christmas, finally returning to the basketball court at the end of March, and he was taken too far to where he left off. The scoring is down a touch at 22.6 PPG, but George hit 53% in his 3s, taking 6.8 assists per game.
But in this particular game, clippers will need PG to hit the glass.
The Clippers have really struggled to recover this season, and have some great rebounds in Downs and Jord Vanderbilt in Minnesota. Clippers also like to play small and may sometimes choose to do it to stretch out wolves, and this makes resurrection more important. You can win this game by dominating the Minnesota mirror – which is really a huge advantage.
In last year’s playoffs, George advanced more time as a rebounder. Remember when the clippers played those games with tons of little ball minutes? They escaped because PG played big. He averaged 9.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs and had double-digit boards in nine of LA’s 19 playoff games.
George has 6.9 rebounds per game this season, more than this number despite injury and sometimes limited minutes, but you can knock out those numbers. He is the superstar of clippers and he will watch big minutes here, which means clippers he should come back to.
At least seven rebounds sounds like a kim to me – George did it in 14-19 playoff games (74%) last year, and was a third board off – but I also like to play for double-digit boards. You might think it’s a double-double game, but it just comes in at +225 because that number should also take into account the potential for double-digit help.
Instead, I will focus only on rebounds and play the best number at +350. This is an implicit 22% and George won 47% of his playoff games last year. If you have Bet365, you can play more than 10 boards at +390.
Be sure to play above 6.5 rebounds, but think about spraying a little on your bet even at that high line.
Bonus NBA Prop Bets
- Bruce Brown, over 13.5 points (+100 Draft Kings): These days the Nets are all about Durant and Kyrie, but Brown has established himself as the third best net, and his minutes are tied with KD. He does all the bad work for this team, and focusing more on the two superstars, he tends to find easier buckets along the way. Since Durant’s return on March 3, Brown has averaged 15.1 bpg for these new-look webs in 12 of the 18 games (67%). That includes Friday 18/10/8 against Cleveland.
- Darius Garland, 25.5 points (-110 Draft Kings): Garland has been a superstar since the All-Star Break, averaging 25.5 points and 10.1 assists with at least 24 points in 75% of those games. He’s already playing 39 MPG, so there’s no room for upside, but here’s a different angle. The Caves have lost those 13 games, and Garland are 25.5 points higher than 11 of 13 defeats. With Caves trailing, Carland need to score a little more. If you think Cleveland look – they’re big dogs – play points. If you like Caves, know that Carland has double-digit assists on every Cleveland win after the break.