If your favorite team needs a wide receiver in the 2022 NFL Draft, they need to act quickly.
“There will be a flow in the first (round) receivers and they can go uphill, uphill, uphill,” AFC College Scout Director told Yahoo Sports. “You have to be on your toes and be ready to jump when it starts.”
One reason for this is that for at least the fourth year, the draft post offers good skills. This year’s class may be without Justin Jefferson or Ja’mar Chase, and you may be arguing that finding the CeeDee Lamp or Jaylan Vadil is not guaranteed.
“The position has good depth, but I don’t know if there’s a player who will step into that real alpha (as a newcomer) immediately,” the director added.
But another, more substantial reason for the potential hysteria in the broader receiver appears to be what happened during the senior part of the offseason.
The Packers traded Tawante Adams to the Raiders. Leaders traded Mount Dyrek for dolphins. Rams sent Robert Woods to the Titans – for a low price, no less. Amari Cooper moved from Dallas to Cleveland. Last week, the Patriots traded in a rare domestic trade from Miami to Dwight Parker.
Hill’s new contract pays him an average of $ 30 million a year. Adams made a check-in for $ 28 million. Cooper ($ 20M) and Woods ($ 16.25M) were paid big enough that their former teams had to accept the quarterback in dollars in exchange for their talent.
New money flowed into the free agency in March with second- and third-tier recipients such as Christian Kirk (four years, $ 72 million), Marquez Waldes-Scandling (three years, $ 30M), and Russell Cage (three). Years, $ 30M), Zay Jones (three years, $ 24M) and Cedric Wilson (three years, $ 22.05M) all make big money.
Add extensions for players like Stefon Diggs (four years, $ 96 million), Brandin Cooks (two years, $ 39.6M), DJ Moore (three years, $ 61.9M), Mike Williams (three years, $ 60M) and Chris Godwin. Three years, $ 60M), and it’s easy to see how the broad receiver market has gone bankers.
“A lot of teams still need (recipients),” said one pro-AFC scout. “Some teams were willing to spend there. Some did not. Those who did not, or could not, gambled that 80 or 90% of the talented were worth the risk at 25%. It would be interesting.”
Problem in the 2022 NFL Draft Receiver class
It is fair to say that we have another crop of highly talented broad receivers in the April draft pond. Strongly considering the single position, relatively speaking, four cycles in a row is considered an unusual draft event.
It’s easy to talk about receivers worth the last two years, and the impressive 2019 draft lot can be overlooked: DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow and many more.
The group was suddenly pushed into the news as recent business rumors circulated around some, including Metcalfe, Samuel, McLaren and AJ Brown. While some of those deals are not in effect this season, it is clear what is going on here.
“Everything is driven by contract,” the pro scout said. “Some teams don’t pay there.”
But counting the immediate contributor – and more specifically a ready-made star – from this year’s class should not be considered a foregone conclusion.
In conversations with NFL evaluators over the past few months, it is clear that there is a healthy appreciation for talent. Round 1 can be seen to have taken six or more broad receivers, followed by eight to 10 landings in rounds 2 and 3, which is in line with the total number we have seen in the last few drafts.
But any of them is reluctant to label instant coffee.
“The Ohio State kids (Garrett Wilson and Chris Olev) are leaving soon and they’re getting ready to go. (Buckeyes WR coach Brian) Hartline is really preparing those guys for the league,” the director said. “But I don’t think I’m doing what Jammer Chase did last season.”
Injuries are also significant factors.
Alabama’s James Williams is vying for the WR1 Awards in this class, but his ACL rip in January called into question the start of his season. His Bama teammate John Metschi III, who suffered a previous ACL injury, also has a chance to qualify for Day 2.
Another first-round prospect, USC’s Drake London, suffered a season-end ankle injury, unable to work in the NFL joint or the Trojans’ Pro Dave. (He’s working out for the NFL teams this Friday.)
There are potential medical concerns for talented whiteouts like Georgia’s George Pickens, Clemson’s Justin Rose, North Dakota’s Christian Watson, SMU’s Reggie Roberson, Michigan’s Jolan Neyler and others – more than chronic types.
Also, there are some level of competitive concerns that are slowing the growth of some high-rated recipients such as Watson, Sky Moore of Western Michigan and Jalan Tolbert of South Alabama. It is noteworthy that Tolbert and Watson seemed to join when they competed against the big school talents in the Senior Bowl. But almost all first-year stars in the receiver (more than 700 yards are rookies) played in the Power Five projects.
Then there are case studies like Trolan Burkes of Arkansas, he was a large-scale first-rounder who threatened to do everything in college, but its pro plan is not clear. He sent in some test numbers and he was asked to expand his root tree and play a different role than he did for the razorbacks.
“I’m not saying this is a bad team, but there are some dangers here,” the director said.
How the free agency helped increase draft recipient shares
Want to guess which team has the highest salary-cap dollars for white receivers by 2022? Here is a note: The answer may shock you.
The New York Giants, women and mothers, currently lead the NFL with the most WR cap dollars at $ 40.9 million. This is approximately 20% of the salary allotted to them this coming season, with Kenny Collade eating more than half of the Giants ’money this season.
“There you might get in trouble,” the pro scout said. “(Kill) gets hurt, Quarterback (Daniel Jones) fights, you’re a snack.”
The Patriots are third on the 2022 WR cash list at $ 39 million – and the next highest-ranked team (Tennessee) is below $ 34 million. The Patriots were so concerned about the health of the situation that Parker was forced to trade with rival Dolphins for landing.
It is a reflection of New England’s concern over a Round 1 white receiver run that will start before their 21st overall selection. Maybe they don’t like this group of whiteouts as much as the others. Or even at the cost of sending multiple draft selections to a team within the division, he may have seen some value in adding his remaining contract and caper hits with Parker for the remaining two years in the $ 6 million range.
“The Dyrek (Hill) trade was a business decision. The Davante (Adams) trade was a business decision. If DK (Metcalf) or one of these (recipients traded), it would be a business decision, meaning they would not want to pay him,” said the pro scout. Said. ”With Dyrek and Tavande, they are established. But not everyone who gets paid this season, and some of those teams (who signed them) will regret those contracts in a year or two.
Quarters are usually paid more, followed by bass rushers and left tags. Now the recipients have infiltrated the top of the market in huge numbers. Hill (12th), Adams (16th) and Diandre Hopkins (18th) are in the top 20 NFL salaries averaging over the year. Only Boss Rusher DJ Watt (15th) and Joey Posa (19th) are in the top 20.
When Larry Fitzgerald signed on for an eight-year, $ 120 million extension in 2011, his first-year salary in that contract ate up 13.4% of the cardinals’ salary range that season. No other white receiver is above 10%. Even in 2018, only one recipient crossed that limit – Odel Beckham, rarely, 10.2%.
By 2022, four recipients currently sit above the 10% mark (Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Cooper and Michael Thomas), and four (Collade, Hill, Alan Robinson and Tyler Lockett) are below that level.
We now have a draft cycle with several teams having multiple first-round picks: Lions (Nos. 2 and 32), Texans (Nos. 3 and 13), Jets (Nos. 4 and 10), Giants (Nos. 5 and 7), Eagles (Nos. 15 and 18). ), Saints (16 and 19), Packers (22 and 28) and Leaders (29 and 30).
“And you could argue that they all see the receiver,” the director said.
If so, our advice to them is: stay on your toes and get ready to move on. With the number of big-name recipients changing teams and / or monetizing, the value of the first-round recipient’s contract begins to move towards the quarter due to market inefficiency.
Chase, which ranked No. 5 last year, has signed a new contract worth $ 30.8 million over a fixed four-year period. DeVonta Smith, ranked 10th overall, was contracted for $ 20.1 million over four years. Rashod Batman, ranked 27th overall at the end of Round 1 in 2021, has a contract worth just $ 12.6 million.
Compare them with high second and third width deliveries, and it is not difficult to figure out why the recipient’s position value in a newcomer contract may push some of them higher than expected in the draft.
“I think it’s starting to flow somewhere in the back end of the top 10 exams and going very fast after that,” the director said.