Weekend Box Office Forecast: Top Gun: Maverick Targets Tom Cruise’s First $ 100M + Starter and Possible Memorial Day Achievements

Photo Credits: Paramount Pictures & Claudio Miranda (“Top Gun: Maverick”); 20th Century Studios (“The Pops Burgers Movie”)

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Memorial Day weekend has been one of the busiest times of the year throughout the history of the theater, and will be true again with its long-awaited release. Top Gun: Maverick.

A year ago, movies were in the early stages of recovery as major markets reopened just in time. A Quiet Place Part IIExclusive release in theaters under the May Holiday Act – an important moment in the long epidemic path to increase the return of movie theaters.

One year later, significant progress has been made by the numerous blockbusters that spread throughout 2021 and early 2022. Of the many films that have been delayed over the past two years, some films are more prosperous or significant than the Tom Cruise sequel. The biggest film of 1986 and the character that cemented his decade-long stardom.

Now, Maverick Finally here it is.

With long-distance tracking, the models are no less than inspiring by further elevating its trajectory. Before the epidemic, the film was expected to become a major blockbuster in the summer of 2020. Now, as a movie that could bring many generations of Xers and Baby Boomers back to the theater – even without their first trips – back to 2019, The Top gun Its sequel is modeling near or above where it was when monitoring and marketing first started almost three years ago.

Social media traces are more through the roof than ever before Impossible goal Movie or latest No time to dieAnd since sales began just before last month, the film continues to move box office goalposts more and more.

Although the military action film leaned over the majority of male audiences, Cruise has historically had a strong attraction to adult women both domestically and internationally. The film’s natural appeal to Central American and military families further underscores the widespread interest.

Opposing Cruise’s high death, practical stunts and visual feats are a big part of the continuing ballooning excitement. Rotten Tomatoes’ score of an incredible 97 percent from 189 critics has added to the buzz of critics and industry screenings over the past month.

Epidemic consumer behaviors have changed the pattern of some films as box office predictions inevitably become unstable.

For example, strong foreclosure No time to die Indicates more performance than it ended last fall – however it was still a healthy cast and belonged to a debatable genre of franchise continuity. Hill It similarly attracted strong pre-sales (mostly in premium formats), although it was better calculated by the fan-driven box office performance that matched modeling expectations.

Top Gun: Maverick It’s in a completely different league, however, with pre-sales competing for three or four of the four films Batman But the fan rush that is expected to generate significant pre-load is very low.

Early access on Tuesday and Wednesday AMC Investor Connect screenings will add more water to the water. MaverickIt will no doubt be added to the weekend total by Paramount.

However, Thursday and actual weekend sales will be strong. Holidays increase on Sundays, and the film’s strong appeal for a premium screen experience raises average ticket prices. Despite the X factor in the fact that the 36-year-old film’s sequel will immediately appeal to younger audiences, the buzz in the social media industry is incredibly positive.

Possible definitions for cruise and Memorial Day weekend

Although Cruise did not open a single film over $ 100 million locally over the weekend (mostly because of the hatred of his sequels and how the business changed from his peak years on the big screen). Maverick It is on a clear path to change. In fact, if the series continues on its current trajectory and attracts strong hiking business with casual moviegoers, the reason for accessing or violating all-time Memorial Day weekend recordings.

Current memoirs? They belong to the year 2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At the End of the World The largest ever three-day ($ 114.7 million) and four-day openings ($ 139.8 million) for the holidays. Significantly, those two figures excluded $ 13.2 million from Thursday’s shows. Fifteen years ago it was not common practice for studios to add pre-midnight revenue to a film’s weekend shows, but things have changed since then.

Another close barometer Maverick May be Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal SkullIt opened a year later Pirates The trilogy-caper is $ 100.1 million for three days and $ 126.9 million for four days – again excluding its own Thursday collection of $ 25.0 million. like this Top gun Follow up, Crystal Skull Driven by unseen stars from the 80s, the long-awaited sequel to iconic pop cultural assets.

At the end of the respective long Memorial Day weekends, At the end of the world Amassed $ 153 million domestically and Crystal Skull Was behind it with $ 152 million.

The release of Paramount is noteworthy Maverick This weekend was the largest theatrical release in history at 4,732 locations, a record 4,725 opening weekends by 2019 King of the Lions Re-creation. Following the aforementioned Tuesday and Wednesday sneakers, traditional previews will begin at 3pm on Thursday.

The studio sets expectations at the conservative level with a $ 92 million four-day bow expectation.

On the opposite programming side, Disney will distribute 20th Century Studios Pops Burgers movie At 3,400 locations this weekend. Social traces are solid with the fan base of the TV series, which has been reflected in pre-sales since its launch last week.

Nevertheless, the main play here may be aimed at young millennials, generals and some families with animated comedy. The reviews are also very encouraging with 93 percent of the 46 Rotten Tomatoes critics scoring.

Previews for this Pops burgers Thursday at 5 p.m. Disney expects a four-day startup of $ 10 million to $ 14 million.

Starting weekend limits

Top Gun: Maverick
3-day start weekend limit: $ 120 – 145 million
4-day start weekend limit: $ 143 – 177 million

Pops Burgers movie
3-day start weekend limit: $ 8 – 12 million
4-day start weekend limit: $ 9.5 – 15 million

Weekend Forecast & Location Number Predictions

Current Predictions a Increased from 130 to 165 per cent (3-day) From a total of $ 71.5 million to ten last weekend. That too will be a representative Increased from 17 to 36 per cent (4-day) Memorial Day weekend 2019’s $ 173.1 million to ten total.

The movie Distributors 3-day weekend forecast Calculated locally from Sunday, May 29th 3-day% change from last Wknd 4-day weekend forecast Total calculated locally from Monday 30th May Location Number Estimate (until Wednesday)
Top Gun: Maverick Paramount Pictures $ 130,000,000 $ 130,000,000 New $ 156,000,000 $ 156,000,000 4,732
Dr. is strange in the diversity of madness Disney & Marvel Studios $ 14,600,000 $ 368,500,000 -55% $ 19,000,000 $ 372,800,000 4,000
Pops Burgers movie 20th Century Studios (Disney) $ 9,600,000 $ 9,600,000 New $ 12,000,000 $ 12,000,000 3,400
Downton Abbey: A New Era Focus Features $ 7,600,000 $ 29,500,000 -52% $ 9,700,000 $ 31,500,000 3,820
The bad guys Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation $ 5,100,000 $ 81,800,000 -17% $ 6,900,000 $ 83,600,000 3,200
Sonic the Hedgehog2 Paramount Pictures $ 2,800,000 $ 185,400,000 -32% $ 3,800,000 $ 186,400,000 2,500
Everywhere everything at once A24 $ 2,200,000 $ 56,100,000 -30% $ 2,900,000 $ 56,800,000 1,350
Men A24 $ 1,500,000 $ 5,900,000 -55% $ 1,900,000 $ 6,300,000 2,212
Lost City Paramount Pictures $ 1,100,000 $ 101,100,000 -28% $ 1,400,000 $ 101,300,000 1,000
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore Warner Bros. Pictures $ 1,000,000 $ 95,000,000 -49% $ 1,200,000 $ 95,200,000 1,000

* All forecasts are subject to revision prior to first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday ratings from studios or official sources.

The number of theaters has been updated as confirmed by the studios. Since some studios do not finalize the number of weekend locations and / or the purpose of reporting box office earnings before release, it is not necessary to list the top ten locations in the table above.

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